Belarus, often referred to as “Europe’s last dictatorship,” faces yet another controversial election as its longtime leader Alexander Lukashenko seeks to extend his near 30-year reign. The election, advanced from August to January under the guise of strategic planning, is widely regarded as a calculated move to stifle dissent and avoid the mass protests that erupted following the 2020 presidential election.
The Shadow of 2020
The last presidential election in Belarus, held in 2020, was a flashpoint in the country’s history. Official results declared Lukashenko the winner with an implausible 80% of the vote, sparking widespread accusations of fraud. The announcement triggered months of unprecedented protests, drawing tens of thousands into the streets despite the government’s harsh response. Security forces detained over 65,000 people, subjected many to brutal beatings, and systematically dismantled independent media and civil society organizations. The fallout left Belarus isolated internationally, with the European Union refusing to recognize Lukashenko’s legitimacy as president.
Exiled Opposition and a Suppressed Nation
Among the opposition leaders who emerged in 2020 was Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who stepped into the political arena after her husband, activist Siarhei Tsikhanouski, was jailed. Despite being a political novice, Tsikhanouskaya garnered significant support, leading many to believe she won the election. Forced into exile, she now denounces the current election as a “sham” and urges Belarusians to vote against every candidate to protest the regime.
Belarus remains a nation under tight control. Over 1,300 political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, languish in detention, while human rights organizations estimate that nearly half of all politically motivated convictions since 2020 were handed down under vague charges of “violating public order” and “organizing mass riots.” The regime’s repression extends beyond political activists to include their friends, family, and even participants in private online discussions.
Lukashenko’s Grip on Power
Lukashenko’s tenure as president began in 1994, amid public disillusionment with post-Soviet economic hardships. Presenting himself as a crusader against corruption, he consolidated power by suppressing dissent, restoring Soviet-era economic controls, and fostering close ties with Moscow. Belarus remains an outlier in Europe, with its feared KGB security agency and retention of the death penalty.
The regime’s dependency on Russia has deepened in recent years, particularly after Belarus facilitated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Lukashenko’s government has since hosted Russian tactical nuclear weapons and is preparing to deploy hypersonic missiles, further entrenching Belarus in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit.
Strategically located between Russia and NATO member states, Belarus’ fate is closely tied to regional power dynamics. The December 2024 treaty signed by Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin underscores this relationship, placing Belarus under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. This development raises alarms in the West, as Belarus now hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons, extending Moscow’s reach in its confrontation with NATO and Ukraine.
A Stage-Managed Election
In the run-up to this year’s election, Lukashenko has implemented a series of measures to eliminate even the semblance of democratic competition. Opposition candidates were disqualified from the ballot, and only token challengers remain. Early voting began Tuesday, with the election concluding Sunday, and Lukashenko is all but assured a seventh term in office. This outcome is emblematic of a political system designed to perpetuate his rule rather than reflect the will of the people.
In a bid to placate international criticism, Lukashenko has nearly pardoned 200 political prisoners in small increments over the years, but these gestures have been overshadowed by continued crackdowns. According to the country’s human rights tracker Viasna, hundreds have been arrested in recent raids targeting associates of political detainees, while others face charges for participating in minor acts of dissent.
A Nation at a Crossroads
For many Belarusians, this election is not a choice but a performance orchestrated by a regime determined to cling to power. With most opposition voices silenced, dissent suppressed, and international condemnation mounting, the future of Belarus remains uncertain. As Lukashenko likely secures another term, the struggle for democracy and human rights in this embattled nation continues, fueled by the resilience of its people and the hope that change, however distant, remains possible.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
Comments