The Syrian revolution has ushered in a seismic political shift, unseating President Bashar al-Assad and placing the once-oppressed rebels at the helm of power. However, as Syria grapples with its future, startling revelations have surfaced about Assads financial dealings with Russia, further complicating the Kremlins position in the region.

According to an investigation by the Financial Times, Assads regime secretly airlifted around $250 million in cash to Moscow over a two-year period. These transactions, amounting to nearly two tonnes of $100 bills, highlight the extraordinary measures Assad took to sustain his regime amid crippling international sanctions. The funds, delivered to Moscows Vnukovo airport, were reportedly used to purchase essential goods such as wheat, pay for money-printing services, and cover defense expenses, all while securing the Assad familys wealth abroad.

A Desperate Regimes Financial Gambit

Faced with severe sanctions that had drained Syrias foreign reserves to almost nothing by 2018, the Assad government relied heavily on cash to conduct international transactions. With no access to conventional financial systems, Syrias central bank resorted to what was available in its vaults. This dependency on cash underscores the regimes isolation and its reliance on Russia for survival.

Further compounding the scandal, Assads family has been accused of using these funds to acquire luxury properties in Moscow, raising concerns about the looting of Syrias national wealth. David Schenker, a former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, described these cash transfers as emblematic of Assads longstanding practice of enriching himself and his inner circle at Syrias expense.

Russias Role and the Cost of Support

Russias deepening ties with Assads regime over the years were not merely military but also economic. Moscow played a pivotal role in sustaining Assad through military support, including Wagner Group mercenaries, and leveraging Syrias phosphate resources. Russian state-owned entities, such as the printing company Goznak, provided crucial services, including the production of Syrian banknotes.

These revelations, however, place the Kremlin in a precarious position. With Assad ousted and the rebels now in control, Russia faces the challenge of renegotiating its presence in Syria while distancing itself from the tarnished legacy of the former regime. Further complicating the matters is Russia harbouring the runaway president in its country.

Despite the fall of Assad, Russia remains focused on securing its strategic military foothold in Syria. The Tartus naval facility and Hmeimim airbase are vital for Moscows power projection in the Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. In the wake of the regime change, Russian officials have reportedly initiated contact with the victorious rebels, obtaining preliminary security guarantees for these bases. This pragmatic approach reflects Moscows willingness to adapt to the new realities in Damascus.

The Kremlins overtures to the new Syrian government highlight its broader strategy of ensuring influence in the region, even amid significant setbacks. While losing Assad is undoubtedly a blow to Russian ambitions, it does not signify the collapse of its Middle Eastern policy. Russias diplomatic flexibility, honed through years of engaging with a diverse range of actorsfrom the Taliban to the Houthispositions it to potentially reach a new accommodation with Syrias leadership.

The Path Ahead

For Russia, the stakes in Syria extend beyond military bases. The overthrow of Assad threatens to undermine its broader strategy in the Middle East, yet Moscow retains key alliances with Turkey and Iran, along with growing ties to non-state actors. The Kremlins ability to recalibrate its approach in Syria will be critical in determining whether it can maintain a foothold in the region.

As the new Syrian government consolidates power, Russias diplomatic overtures may pave the way for a mutually beneficial arrangement. However, this will require Moscow to address lingering grievances from its decade-long support of Assads brutal war against the rebels now in charge.