Tuesday 8 April 2025
In North India, a Short Winter doesn’t Always Lead to a Scorching Summer
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The Indian subcontinent is experiencing significantclimate changesdue to rapid industrialization and evolving lifestyles. These changes have led to unpredictable shifts in climatic conditions, affecting the duration and intensity of seasons. While winters sometimes extend longer than usual and summers appear shorter, at other times, seasonal patterns fluctuate unpredictably.
A brief winter season does not necessarily indicate prolonged, intense summers. A recent study was conducted to examine whether shorter winters in February contribute to extended summers in April. The findings suggest that this is not always the case, as multiple factors influence seasonal temperature variations.
A detailed analysis of monthly average maximum temperatures in North India since 1971 focused on the ten warmest months ofFebruaryduring this period. The findings revealed that in five of these years, April experienced significantly warmer than normal temperatures. However, in the remaining five years, April temperatures were either close to normal (four instances) or below normal (one instance).
The months of February and April were selected for this analysis due to their critical positions in the seasonal cycle. February marks the conclusion of winter in North India, while April represents the beginning of full-fledged summer. March, on the other hand, typically serves as a transition phase between these two seasons.
According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), “There is no direct one-to-one relationship between February and April temperatures. Multiple factors contribute to temperature variations, including large-scale climatic phenomena like El Nio and La Nia, as well as localized meteorological factors such as the frequency, intensity, and duration of western disturbances.”
Recent trends reinforce the lack of a direct link between February and April temperatures. For instance, in 2023, North India witnessed record-breaking heat in February, making it the warmest February since 1901, with an average maximum temperature 3.5 degrees Celsius above the historical mean (1971-2024). Despite this, April 2023 was cooler than usual, with average maximum temperatures nearly 1 degree below the historical mean.
Conversely, the trend was reversed in 2022. While February of that year had near-normal temperatures, April turned out to be the hottest on record in North India. This variability highlights that short winters do not always translate to prolonged summers, as other climatic elements play a crucial role in temperature fluctuations.
As Mohapatra explains, “In years when strong El Nio or La Nia conditions prevail, there can be a connection between February and April temperatures. However, in 2024, we are experiencing a weak La Nia, which is not expected to have a significant influence on temperature trends.”
One of the key factors contributing to increased temperatures across both months is climate change. Over the past two decades, global warming has resulted in the warmest recorded years in history, increasing the likelihood of any given month being hotter than in previous decades.
The IMD chief further emphasized, “Climate change is playing an increasing role in making both February and April hotter. Given the rising global temperatures, the probability of any month experiencing above-normal temperatures has increased significantly.”
With the IMD set to release its seasonal forecast for March, April, and May soon, experts continue to monitor and analyze climate trends to better understand the evolving seasonal patterns in India. As industrialization and lifestyle transformations continue, climate mitigation strategies and adaptation measures will be crucial to addressing the ongoing challenges posed by global warming.
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