A thaw in the frosty diplomatic relations between India and Canada may be on the horizon following the departure of Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister and the Mark Carney taking on the leadership role in Ottawa. Trudeau’s tenure saw a dramatic decline in bilateral ties, largely due to accusations he made in September 2023 regarding India’s alleged involvement in the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen. India vehemently denied any involvement, leading to a deep freeze in diplomatic relations.
However, Carney’s rise to power brings fresh prospects for reconciliation. Unlike his predecessor, Carney is widely regarded as a pragmatic leader with a technocratic and globally oriented approach to foreign relations. His potential leadership presents a crucial opportunity to reset ties between the two nations. Before his election as leader of Canada’s governing Liberal Party, Carney himself stated, “There are opportunities to rebuild relationships with India, there needs to be a shared sense of values around commercial relationships, and if I am the prime minister, I look forward to the opportunity to build that.”
Signs of a Diplomatic Reset
In a significant indication of improving ties, Daniel Rogers, the head of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, recently visited New Delhi for a high-level intelligence conference hosted by India’s National Security Council Secretariat. The event, also attended by intelligence heads from the US and the UK, signals renewed security discussions between India and Canada. This follows the resumption of contacts between security agencies and preliminary talks on appointing new high commissioners to each other’s capitals.
These discussions, which reportedly resumed in December, mark a notable shift after India withdrew its high commissioner and expelled five Canadian diplomats in response to Canada’s expulsion of Indian officials linked to the Nijjar investigation. While there is no official confirmation from Indian authorities regarding the status of diplomatic appointments, sources suggest that both sides are considering whether a high-profile leadership meeting should precede the appointment of new envoys to publicly affirm a renewed commitment to cooperation.
Additionally, recent backchannel dialogues between business leaders, trade representatives, and cultural figures have indicated a willingness on both sides to move beyond the political discord of the past. Indian businesses with investments in Canada, particularly in the technology and energy sectors, have been pushing for a resolution to tensions that have disrupted trade flows. Similarly, Canadian pension funds and businesses interested in the Indian market are advocating for a stabilization of relations to facilitate continued investment opportunities.
The Role of the G7 Summit
One possible venue for such a meeting could be the 2025 G7 Summit, set to be hosted by Canada in Alberta. India has previously been invited as a partner nation to G7 meetings, and an invitation from Ottawa could be a strategic move to signal rapprochement. However, there is no official confirmation regarding India’s potential participation at the upcoming summit.
Beyond diplomatic protocols, there are pressing economic and strategic interests urging both countries to move forward. Trade negotiations, which were suspended amid the 2023 controversy, could see a revival under Carney’s leadership. Both nations have much to gain from rekindling trade talks, particularly in the sectors of technology, investment, and climate change initiatives. Canada is home to a significant Sikh diaspora, numbering around 800,000—approximately 2% of its total population. While the Khalistan movement has been a major point of contention, recent informal dialogues between former diplomats and policy experts from both countries suggest that focusing on trade, economic cooperation, and climate goals could help move beyond the past discord.
Furthermore, India’s growing role as a global economic powerhouse makes it a critical partner for Canada, especially as Ottawa seeks to diversify its trade partnerships in light of global economic shifts. Canada’s energy exports, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), could find a growing market in India, while India’s IT and pharmaceutical industries present valuable collaboration opportunities for Canadian businesses. Strengthened economic ties could serve as a stabilizing force, reducing the impact of political disagreements on overall relations.
Future Prospects for India-Canada Relations
While no immediate breakthroughs have been announced, the shift in leadership in Canada provides a window of opportunity to mend ties. If Mark Carney adopts a pragmatic and diplomatic approach to rebuilding relations, backed by high-level engagements and shared economic interests, the coming years could see a significant improvement in India-Canada ties. However, the success of this rapprochement will also depend on how both sides navigate contentious issues, including Sikh separatism and security concerns.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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