Wednesday 16 April 2025
The Fall of Assad and the Emergence of Julani: A New Chapter for Syria
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On December 8, 2023, the decade-long civil war in Syria reached a dramatic turning point as rebel forces led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Damascus, toppling the authoritarian regime of President Bashar al-Assad. This development ended over 13 years of brutal conflict that began in 2011 during the Arab Spring uprisings. Assad, whose regime was notorious for its oppressive tactics, has reportedly fled the country, leaving Syria at a crossroads as it faces the dual challenge of rebuilding and navigating its new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammed al-Julani.
HTS, under Julanis leadership, has emerged as the dominant rebel force in Syria. Once affiliated with al-Qaeda, HTS has rebranded itself multiple times, attempting to shed its extremist image. Julani severed formal ties with al-Qaeda in 2016, renaming his group Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, and later rebranded it as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in 2017. Despite these efforts, HTS remains designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States, the United Kingdom, and others.
Julanis strategy over the years has been to position HTS as a pragmatic Islamist movement focused on Syrian sovereignty, distancing the group from the violent tactics of entities like ISIS. His leadership has been marked by a mix of military dominance, political maneuvering, and public outreach. In 2020, HTS crushed Hurras al-Din, a rival al-Qaeda affiliate, consolidating its control over Syrias Idlib province.
Born in Saudi Arabia in 1982, Julani moved to Damascus in 1989. His ideological journey began during the Second Intifada in 2000 and the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, where he joined the insurgency and climbed the ranks of al-Qaedas affiliate in Iraq. After a split with ISIS in 2013, Julani aligned his group with al-Qaeda before severing ties to establish a more independent foothold in Syria.
In a 2021 interview with PBS, Julani emphasized his commitment to Syrian independence and criticized foreign interventions that exacerbated the conflict. While his past affiliations with al-Qaeda and other extremist groups cast a long shadow, Julani now seeks to rebrand himself as a moderate leader who embraces pluralism and tolerance. He has called for the closure of Assads notorious prisons, the dissolution of the former regimes security forces, and accountability for human rights abuses committed during Assads rule.
Videos showing the liberation of thousands of prisoners from Assads infamous Saydnaya prison, described by rights groups as a human slaughterhouse, have underscored the profound human cost of Syrias civil war. Rebel leaders have pledged to pursue justice for victims of torture and extrajudicial killings. However, questions remain about the governance model HTS will implement and its capacity to unify a war-torn nation.
Western nations face a diplomatic dilemma: how to engage with a leader who remains a U.S.-designated terrorist while overseeing the most significant political shift in Syria in over a decade. Julanis overtures to Western countries signal a desire for legitimacy, but skepticism persists given HTSs violent history and ongoing terrorist designation.
The fall of Assad marks the end of an era of authoritarian rule but leaves Syria at an inflection point. The path forward will depend on whether Julani and HTS can deliver on promises of stability, justice, and reconciliation. As foreign powers weigh their next moves, Syrias future hinges on the ability of its new leadership to balance the demands of governance with the scars of its violent past.
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