The sudden ousting of Sheikh Hasina from Bangladesh poses a major dilemma for India. The 15-year-long regime, which heavily favored India, is being systematically disassembled and India is on the verge of losing one of its most valuable allies. Establishing strong bilateral relations with Bangladesh remains imperative for India. However, one major obstacle stands in the way of maintaining this diplomatic tie – India is harboring the runaway PM who needs to answer some questions that Bangladesh would like to ask. 

Hasina fled Bangladesh on August 5 and was given a stay in India, which allows a 45-day visa free stay for Bangladesh officials with a diplomatic passport. However, just two weeks after the former PM’s ousting, Bangladesh’s interim government revoked the diplomatic passports of Sheikh Hasina and her cabinet’s families. The cancellation of her passport puts her at the risk of extradition, which is included in the legal framework under the extradition treaty signed by India and Bangladesh. Hasina faces a total of 94 cases, which include murder charges for protestors killed in the student uprising against the reservation quota system.  

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party to Hasina’s Awami League, the, has urged India for Hasina’s extradition. The BNP has made statements claiming Sheikh Hasina’s presence in India to be a hindrance to amicable bilateral relationship between the two countries. 

Sheikh Hasina’s Tumultuous 15-year-long “Regime” 

Hasina was first elected Prime Minister of Bangladesh in 1996 and was the first Prime Minister to finish her term of 5 years since independence. She was re-elected in 2008 and has since been the ruling Prime Minister of the country. Her tenure, while being credited to enhance the social and economic status of Bangladesh has been criticized for an allegedly autocratic rule.  

Reports of extrajudicial killings, sudden disappearances, jailing and repression of opposition have marred the rule of the PM. Her party, Awami League, has vehemently denied these allegations and continuously insisted they were all rumors perpetrated by the opposition. Meanwhile, New Delhi has shown unwavering support to Awami league throughout its tenure. 

The Awami League also jailed BNP leader and former Bangladesh PM Khaleda Zia over alleged corruption charges for 28 years. Zia had vehemently denied the charges and accused Hasina and the Awami League of political conspiracy.  She was released in 2018, Zia is battling cirrhosis of the liver, which has now left her bedridden. Zia was recently acquitted in five defamation cases after the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government.  

Sheikh Hasina’s victory in controversial Elections 

Sheikh Hasina won a second consecutive term as Prime Minister of Bangladesh with a landslide victory in the 2014 general elections. The election was reportedly marred by controversy, including allegations of violence and crackdown on the opposition party. She secured her third consecutive term and fourth overall as Prime Minister of Bangladesh when the Awami League won 288 out of 300 Parliamentary seats. Opposition leader Kamal Hossain dismissed the election as farcical and rejected the results. 

Hasina secured a fourth consecutive victory in the recent elections in Bangladesh, which was also shrouded in controversy. Reports of “dummy candidates” and “coerced voting” were surfacing leading to the boycott of the elections by the opposition party, BNP. The BNP instigated a non-cooperation movement, urging the citizens to not vote, resulting in a turnout of less than 20%. 

However, the Awami League was given diplomatic support through the last three general elections by India and China, while the west and several European countries were critical of the sanctity of the elections.  

Amidst the political upheaval and rising violence in the country, Hasina was forced to flee the country, and she has been staying in New Delhi. However, India has not yet provided political asylum to Hasina. Her attempts at seeking asylum in other countries like the UK, US and the UAE have been unsuccessful so far. India harboring Hasina further presents a diplomatic challenge in balancing the relations with the interim government in Bangladesh. 

Iffy relations with the opposition 

The BNP remains confident of their victory if free-and-fair elections are held in the nation. India developed a hostile relationship with BNP during their term as the ruling party in the early 2000s, with India accusing the coalition government of harboring insurgents targeting the Hindu community.  

While India’s relationship with Bangladesh remains undetermined, China is also likely to be looking to strengthen their ties with the border nation in order to establish a stronghold in the region. This puts India on the clock to make some crucial decisions.  

The Indian government has wasted no time in reaching out to Bangladesh’s interim government, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi holding telephone conversations with the interim leader Muhammad Yunus. However, it will take a while for Delhi to assuage the anger in Bangladesh over the unwavering support provided to Hasina and Awami League for the last 15 years.