India has officially notified Pakistan of its plan to review and modify the Indus Waters Treaty, a bilateral agreement established in 1960. This treaty was facilitated by the World Bank after extensive negotiations and is regarded as one of the most resilient agreements between the two countries. 

However, it has faced increasing pressure due to deteriorating bilateral relations, especially concerning matters of terrorism and the Jammu and Kashmir region.

What Was in The Notice for the Indus Waters Treaty?

The notice was issued on August 30, 2023, under Article XII (3) of the treaty, which permits modifications through a formally ratified treaty between the two nations. This action comes after India’s prior communication on January 25, 2023, which requested amendments to the treaty.

India is now encouraging Pakistan to enter government-to-government negotiations and discussions to facilitate these modifications.

So, here’s the question arises, what truly is the Indus Waters Treaty and what are the Key concerns raised by India?

What Truly Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed on September 19, 1960, by Former Indian Prime Minister Jawahar Lal Nehru, Former Pakistani President Mohammad Ayub Khan, and Former World Bank representative WAB Illif.

The treaty allocated the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. The treaty allows the countries to utilize the rivers that were allocated to the others under certain conditions.

What Are the Key Areas Where India Raised Concerns?

India’s recent notice for the Indus Waters Treaty states several critical concerns that warrant a revaluation of the treaty’s obligation. These evaluations include:

• Demographic Changes: Shifts in population distribution and growth that influence the management of water resources.
• Clean Energy Development: India’s commitment to advancing clean energy projects to achieve its emission reduction targets.
• Sustainability Concerns: The importance of integrating environmental sustainability into water usage and management practices.
• Cross-Border Terrorism: Ongoing security challenges that impact corporation and resource management.

These concerns are especially emphasized in the context of conflicts over the Kishanganga and Ratle hydropower projects situated on the Chenab and Neelam rivers.

What Is the Role of the World Bank in The Treaty?

The World Bank plays a procedural role in the Indus Waters Treaty by assisting in the appointment of neutral experts and arbitration chairs. However, it will not participate in the proposed negotiation between India and Pakistan. These upcoming discussions will be open-ended and cover all aspects of the treaty. It allows for thorough dialogue on the relevant issues.

Ongoing Disputes and Mechanisms for the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty has remained unamended since it was established, and both countries have recently encountered challenges in resolving disputes. The World Bank has initiated two mechanisms—the natural expert and the Permanent Court of Arbitration. To address these issues, although India has raised concerns about potential inconsistencies between the two mechanisms.

In 2015, Pakistan requested a neutral expert to address its concerns regarding the hydropower projects. It later withdrawing this request and opted for arbitration. The World Bank paused both processes in 2016, but they were resumed in March 2022 at Pakistan’s insistence.

India has participated in meetings with the neutral expert but has refrained from engaging with the Permanent Court of Arbitration. It concerned that parallel processes could lead to conflict rulings and undermine the treaty’s integrity.

With ongoing tensions, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty is unclear. Both countries facing challenges of balancing their water resource requirements with diplomatic relations.