China’s rise from a nation divided in the 40s to an economic and military superpower in the modern era is nothing short of inspirational. China is currently the world’s second largest economy and has the second strongest military, behind the United States in both instances. The resurgence can be attributed to a streamlined and laser-focused approach by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) towards strengthening its economic resources to build up a formidable military presence. China is now a nuclear superpower on par with the United States and Russia, and its confidence is evident in its display of military might around the Taiwan Strait and the Indo-Pacific region.
Matter of fact, a pro-China newspaper based in Hong Kong, WenWeiPo, published an article which outlined a timeline of wars that it will most likely wage over the next 50 years, starting with an annexation attempt on Taiwan as soon as 2027, which according to experts even the US will not be able to thwart. The other wars are the war for the Spratly Islands, which are a disputed archipelago off the coast of the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia (2027-2030); a two-front war on India which China will wage along with Pakistan (2035); the war to recover the Diaoyutai and the Ryukyus which are the Senkaku and Okinawa islands under the Japanese rule (2035-2040); the war to unify Outer Mongolia (2040-2050); and the war to recover the territories that were seized by Russia (2050-2070).
From a seventh-generation Indian Army officer to a world-renowned Defence and Strategic Affairs expert, Lt. Col. Jasinder Singh Sodhi (Retd.) has a prolific tenure behind him. He is a Veteran from the Bombay Sappers, Corps of Engineers of the Indian Arm with over 21 years of distinguished service. Following his voluntary retirement in 2013, Lt. Col. transitioned to the media world with articles published in 53 reputed Indian and International publications, and numerous media appearances on 67 leading Indian and International media channels. Lt. Col. Sodhi has been awarded the “Lifetime Achievement Award”, “Icon of the Year Award” and has been honoured by Geojuristoday for his contribution to defence journalism. He is also on the advisory board of Chanakya Policy and Research Centre.
China’s looming war clouds and its formidable position in the endgame are discussed in detail by Lt. Col. Sodhi in his book, “China’s War Clouds: The Great Chinese Checkmate”. He even talks about a potential, ill-fated two-front war in which India will simultaneously have to defend Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh against China and Pakistan in 2035. In this exclusive interview with ARCLANTIC, we talk extensively about the threat that China poses and how it gained its insurmountable position, and the effect that the recent events, such as the sudden regime change in Bangladesh, exacerbate the security threat to India. The conversation continues in next part.
In your book, China’s War Clouds, you talk extensively about the first 3 wars. Can you give us an overview on why you think that China is so confident in its victory in each of these?
Well, as of now, with all the information available in the public domain, China is way ahead in its military preparedness. In my book, I have assessed the first three wars because I have written that I would be writing a sequel in 2035 after these three wars. I sincerely hope that these three wars do not happen so that I do not have to write a sequel.
Because if these three wars happen and China is able to win these wars, it will be disaster for the rules-based word order and world peace. So sincerely, I hope that the wars do not take place and hence I do not have to write this sequel to the book.
But the fact remains that China, the way it is building up its military might, is actually a cause of deep concern. Why would a country build up its military might in such a tearing hurry when it knows that no country in the world can dare ever attack it? Not even USA can dare attack China. So China fears no one.
Why is [cHINA] increasing its military might? Definitely it has got military aims.
Lt. Col.J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
Just few weeks back on 28th October in 2024, Admiral Samuel Paparo, who is the commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command said in a statement that after World War Two, China is the only country in the world which is increasing its military might at a speed with which no other country is even able to match up to it for 9 consecutive years.
China has increased its defense budget. Why is it happening? Like I said, it knows no country can dare attack it so why is it doing it?
It is for military aims; otherwise, why would billions of dollars be spent on this military when it knows it has no threat..
In my book I have also discussed various other timelines which point towards the first 3 wars starting with Taiwan in 2027. Just to give few timelines because they are numerous.
One is that Xi Jinping currently is of the age 71 years. The average life span of a Chinese male is 79 years. So Xi Jinping knows he has just about 10-11 years more in power and he has a strong burden on him, I would say, to prove that he is a legacy leader. And the burden is by two major things that he has done in his tenure as a presidential candidate.
One is, he removed the clause in the Chinese Constitution which restricted a Chinese citizen being the Chinese president only for two terms.
And the second, he inserted Xi’s thought (a doctrine outlining Xi Jinping’s ideologies), which is the first for a serving Chinese President whose various thoughts have been included in the Chinese Constitution. It has happened only once before. That was for Deng Xiaoping, and that too after he had passed away.
So, there is a great burden on him to prove that he is a legacy leader, and he knows he has 11/12 years left in power because of the age factor. He has to do these three wars. The first war is for Taiwan because it is a national obsession in every Chinese citizen to conquer Taiwan like it is a national obsession in every Pakistani citizen to think of taking Jammu and Kashmir for Pakistan. Taiwan is the military target or national obsession number one, which I have talked about in detail in my book.
The next war that I have talked is the Spratly Islands which China will not be interested in, but it will be forced to do it because it has to fight the 3rd and the last war under Xi Jinping’s tenure.
“That is a two front war jointly with Pakistan on India in 2035 and that will be the last war that Xi Jinping will fight.”
Lt. Col.J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
Now if we see various timelines as we talk today, there are construction of two aircraft carriers, 21 nuclear submarines and 200 warships for the Chinese Navy being done day and night in the six naval dockers of China. When already China has the world’s biggest Navy, why would it need to construct the warships, nuclear submarine and aircraft carriers in such a vast number on a war footing when it already has the world’s largest Navy?
Secondly, as we talk today, China has 500 nuclear weapons. It aims to build up this nuclear arsenal to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035. What is the need for having such a big arsenal of nuclear weapons?
And this apart from the various timelines that I have discussed like the cooperation between China and Pakistan, the optical fiber cable being laid in 2021 between the Western Theatre Command of China and Chengdu to the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi. All these things are discussed in detail.
The point is very clear that all the timelines point towards increasing Chinese military might, which is purely for military aims.
Those peaceniks of India or abroad who say that China is expanding its military for peaceful purposes should know, it is not for peaceful purposes because such a huge expenditure is never done for peaceful purposes. It has definite war aims and all the timelines that have written are clearly pointing towards these three wars which must be fought under Xi Jinping’s tenure as the Chinese President.
There’s an interesting line in the original article in WenWeiPo (a pro-Beijing state-owned newspaper in Hong Kong) where it says that China will wage six wars, and it very clearly shows China’s confidence and ambitions in the future. And the line is, “In the mid 21st century, China emerges as a real-world power accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, a stagnant US and India, and the rise of Central Europe.” Can you breakdown how China might have reached this assessment? Iis there any gravity to this assessment?
Yes, there is a lot of gravity to this assessment because as of today, out of the 44 critical technologies in the world, China is a leader in 37 of them and USA is the lead in 7.
We all know that China has the world’s second biggest economy. What most of us don’t know about is the almost $3.1 trillion that China has not declared in its bank books.
“Most of us do not know, which I have written in the book, is that China is earning a lot through black money by sale of illicit drugs.” –
Lt. Col. J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
We all are aware of two major drug producing areas in the world, the Golden Crescent and the Golden Triangle.
But there is a 3rd area which is one of the biggest producers of illicit drugs that is China and in specific their Yunnan province. Such is the export of the illicit drugs by China that as on today, 3% of the American youth are ineligible for their military service because they are addicted to an illicit drug manufactured in China which is called fentanyl.
And if you remember just few weeks back, Donald Trump, the newly President elect of USA said that if China doesn’t rein in sending fentanyl to USA, he will increase tariff on Chinese goods by 25%. In India also the drug menace has shot up tremendously.
In the year 2007, India had two crore (20 million) illicit drug users which increased 5 times in just 15 years to ten crore (100 million) in the year 2022. Like USA has fentanyl, in India we have a drug which is called Chitta which in Punjabi means white. The drug is white in color.
So China is earning a lot be it by the black money route or the white money route. It is the manufacturing hub of the world. China is not in economic distress as some of the western media is trying to make the world believe and with deep pockets that China has, like I said sometime back, it has been increasing its defence budget for nine consecutive years.
So, all these are very simple pointers that firstly, there is no economic turmoil in China, it has enough money. Whether it reflects on the bank books or not is another question. Scondly, by way of technological advancements, it has overtaken USA. Here I would like to quote one parameter which I have written in a book.
“What has made China what it is today which many countries in the world should learn?”
Lt. Col.J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
I have no qualms in saying that it is an enemy country, because in my view China and Pakistan are enemies of India. Because of these two countries, we have lost many soldiers, many citizens, but still like I said there is something to learn from China.
It is how have they reached this level which I have written in a book.
There are three major things. One is they have a single political party system which is not possible in democracy like India and USA. The second, they have kept religion within the 4 walls. They have kept religion as a private affair and third, all their plans and policies are implemented in a specific time frame.
Let me give you an example. In 2015, Xi Jinping came to know that there is not even one Chinese university in the top 500 in the world. So he launched World Class 2.0 program in which his aim was that by 2030, at least 2 Chinese universities should come in the world’s top 500. Well, last year that is 2023 (the interview was recorded in December 2024), two Chinese universities have come in the top 10 of the world.
So this is how they implement the plans and policies. They have accountability and responsibility. If a person is made in charge for a particular plan of policy, either he performs or the person is sacked, or disciplinary action is taken.
Most of the democracies in the world, they have grandiose plans but after some time, they also forget. The media also forgets and the thing goes into cold storage. So if any country has to be like China, these are two points which we have to emulate.
Keep religion a private affair and implement all plans and policies in a specific time frame. And coming to the article you mentioned, we all know that in China no person can speak or write without the approval of the Chinese Communist Party. So an article of this nature, appearing with definite timelines, clearly had the approval of the Chinese Communist Party.
And another thing to learn from China is that whatever they want decades ahead, they put in the public domain. They have a national security strategy in the public domain. Because once you have a national security strategy in the public domain, you put your goals in the public domain.
Every organ of the country, be it government, be it private, corporate sector or common citizen knows that they have to work jointly towards achieving those goals. So there are some things which all the countries of the world need to learn from China.
Talking about the strategy, one of the things that we need to learn is from its one-party system. Like you mentioned, one of Xi Jinping’s strategies have been to endorse absolute loyalty and quash any dissent within the country and within the CCP. These include the strictly regulated media and the stern media laws and the suppression of foreign media reporting.
And most recently there is the rigorous anti-corruption campaign that has seen even Xi Jinping’s most trusted loyalists face disciplinary action. Most recently his Admiral who was considered to be very trusted in the army, had to face disciplinary action in light of the anti-corruption campaign. Could you share your thoughts on that?
China has a single political party system right from the time its civil war ended in 1949. No other democracy in the world can emulate it because all democracies have two- or multi-party system.
So that is very unique to China because they have followed this model from decades. For a democracy like India and USA, changing to a single political party system is just not possible.
Second is their zero-tolerance attribute for corruption, be it a defense minister or a big army chief, they have zero tolerance, which I believe is very good. If you remember when Singapore had got independent, it was one of the poorest countries in the world.
The first Prime Minister decided that I will not tolerate corruption. And one of his ministers – who had gone on a foreign holiday sponsored by a business house – the day he landed back in Singapore, he was dismissed. That is the kind of zero tolerance countries like Singapore have.
“That is the kind of zero tolerance China has because corruption is an endemic. It eats a country from within.” –
Lt. Col. J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
We see breaking news coming of high-profile corruption cases and after a few days, few months, few weeks, suddenly the things get away from the limelight or suddenly they are closed.
I mean, how is it possible? On one day there are big press conferences giving all details about the person being corrupt, and after a few weeks, suddenly he is the most honest man. We need to set this thing right.
I agree that for every political party, being in power is important and that’s the primary goal, and there’s nothing wrong.
Every person, even you and me, want to be successful in life, there’s nothing wrong in it either. But to win elections by such means or to win elections by making the country weak internally will do more harm in the times ahead.
At that particular time, you may win that local or national elections but it is going to eat the country like a termite. So we have to have a rethink.
It is fine to lose in life. It is fine to lose election. It is fine to not be successful in everything that that we are doing. But one should never compromise on the values, on the ethos, on the ethics, whether personal or as a country. That is of paramount importance and that is what takes nations ahead. That is what makes a nation strong.
So, this is something we ought to learn from countries like Singapore and China: zero tolerance for corruption.
Keeping this in mind, I am sure that there is an argument here for the variety of political discourse in the country that thriving democracy like India inspires. For example, to quote you in your book, one of the first lines you write is that wars in the modern world are fought in order to propel the political motivations of the party in power in the country.
China’s single political party has propagated its agenda of military might without any opposition from any other party. After the Chinese Civil War, the Communist Party reigned supreme. Is there an argument for the discourse in the politics which has numerous political parties like in a thriving democracy? What are your thoughts on that?
Well, democracies can also have political aims. They can also have military aims. There is nothing wrong in that because it is up to the countries leadership to decide.
But like I said earlier, everything should be in the public domain. Have a national security strategy in place in the public domain. Let everyone know what our national objectives are. And this many democratic countries have this national security strategy in the public domain. The biggest example is USA.
So there is no harm in having political aims. And like you rightly said, I have said in my book that the military aims are an offshoot of the political aims because military is under the political leadership of a country.
We have to be clear what we want. We have to be clear as a nation what are military aims? Who are the enemies? On one hand, we talk about China as an adversary. On the other hand, our year-on-year trade is increasing with them, which I have written about in my book.
We all know that the Galwan Valley clashes happened in June 2020, in which 20 of our brave soldiers of the Indian Army were killed by the Chinese Army.
That time, our trade with China was $87 billion. It is the irony that after 2020, our year-on-year trade with China has increased. Last year trade with China was $136.2 billion.
What most of us don’t realize is that every dollar that we are trading with China, it is using part of that dollar to strengthen its army which will attack us. So indirectly trade with China is strengthening their Army. So, we need to have everything clear in the public domain. Our entrepreneurs like importing from China because they make more profits there.
The Government of India has rightly introduced the Aatmanirbhar (Self-dependent) Bharat and Make in India initiatives, which have been very successful in the defense sector. The defence sector can be successful in this Aatmanirbhar Bharat, Make In India, or one of the other sectors. The Government of India has shown the way, it is now up to the Indian businessman, the Indian entrepreneurs, who now have to work to make these schemes successful in other sectors too.
They should be ready to forego large profits which accrue by importing from China. We contend with having lesser profits by making in India. Today we all say, boycott Chinese goods. That is a very nice catch phrase but is it really practical in today’s scenario?
As per a report, which as per a study which I have quoted in my book, 90% of the Indians earn less than ₹25,000 a month. Now when a common Indian citizen goes to purchase anything in the market, 9 out of 10 things on the market shelf are made in China. What can that person do who is earning just 25,000 a month?
He will purchase the cheapest thing. So even if he wants to boycott Chinese goods, he can’t because our entrepreneurs have not lived up to it. The Government of India has shown all the right initiatives, all the right paths. It is the entrepreneur of India which has to live it up.
Let me give you another example here. The Indian steel manufacturing companies give steel on credit to the builders for 3-month duration. These steel manufacturing companies in China give credit for a 12-month duration. So where will that builder go and purchase steel? Obviously China.
You will be amazed to hear that 31% of all the steel manufactured in China comes to India. We are such a big market for them and at the same time they are increasing their military might to wage a war against us after a decade. So this is where the irony is.
It is people like you and me. It is people, the businessman, the common citizen who has to live it up in his own capacity and capability. And like I said, the common citizen wants to play their role but what can he do when he is earning less than INR 25,000. Nine out of ten things are made in China which are on the Indian market shelves.
So it is the Indian businessman who have to perform. By perform, I mean they have to import less from China, make more in India, even if their profits are less.
The conversation continues in Part three where we discuss the impact of the border patrolling arrangements along the LAC, and the impact of recent events, such as Trump’s re-election and the Bangladesh regime change in detail. Also read about Lt. Col. Sodhi giving an insight into his journey through his military training, transition into the media world, and his thoughts on the current affairs of defense reporting in India in part 1.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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