As the 2024 US presidential election unfolds, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump remains incredibly close. Neither candidate currently holds a decisive lead in enough states to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
Polls in the most critical swing states are essentially tied, reflecting a nation deeply divided. Today, on November 5, American voters participate in one of the most significant elections in recent times, determining the future path of the United States and impacting global geopolitics for the next four years. Polls indicate a very tight contest between Trump and Harris, with all projected leads falling within the margin of error.
In recent weeks, the momentum seemed to shift towards Trump. However, the last few days have shown signs of a slight swing back towards Harris. Polls from Marist College, YouGov, Muhlenberg College, and The Washington Post indicate that Harris has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania. Additionally, a Selzer poll shows her leading by three points in Iowa, and the latest New York Times/Siena College polls give her a slight edge in key battleground states.
The Electoral College System
The US presidential election is unique in that it involves two distinct processes: the popular vote and the Electoral College. Winning the national popular vote does not guarantee a candidate the presidency. The Electoral College, composed of 538 electors, ultimately decides the outcome. A candidate needs a majority of 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Each state has a minimum of three electors, two senators and House representative. Electors meet in mid-December to cast their votes for president and vice president. There are two types of elections:
Popular Vote: This is the election in which voters across the country cast their ballots for their preferred presidential candidate. Each vote contributes to the total number of votes a candidate receives nationwide. The popular vote reflects the direct choice of the people.
Electoral Vote: This is the process by which the the president is actually elected. The United States uses the Electoral College system, where each state is allocated a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress (the number of senators and representatives). There are a total of 538 electoral votes, and a candidate needs a majority of 270 to win the presidency.
Instead of a single national election, the presidential election is essentially 51 separate contests (50 states plus Washington, D.C.). Each state conducts its own election, and the candidate who wins the popular vote in a state typically receives all of that state’s electoral votes (except in Maine and Nebraska, where two votes go to the statewide winner and the rest distributed based on the popular vote in each congressional district).
In most states, the winner of the popular vote takes all the electoral votes. This means that even if a candidate wins a state by a very narrow margin, they receive all the electoral votes from that state.
Recent Reforms and Historical Context
The Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022 has introduced significant changes, designating the governor as the certifier of the state’s electors and clarifying the process for counting votes and handling disputes. This bipartisan legislation aims to prevent the submission of fake electors and ensure a more transparent electoral process.
Historically, the Electoral College has generally reflected the popular vote. However, in two of the last six elections, the candidate who won the popular vote did not win the presidency, as seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections. This discrepancy highlights the influence of smaller, often more rural states, which tend to lean towards Republicans.
Voter Demographics and Support
Recent polls conducted by Pew Research provide updated insights into the voter demographics supporting each candidate in the 2024 US presidential election.
When it comes to gender, men are more likely to support Trump, with 53% favoring him over Harris, who has 45% support among men. On the other hand, women tend to favor Harris, with 55% supporting her compared to 43% for Trump.
Looking at race and ethnicity, Harris enjoys strong backing from black voters, with 85% supporting her. She also has majority support from Asian voters at 62% and Hispanic voters at 58%. In contrast, Trump has the majority support of white voters, with 57% favoring him.
Education plays a significant role in voter preferences. Voters without a bachelor’s degree lean towards Trump, with 54% supporting him compared to 43% for Harris. Conversely, those with a four-year degree or higher favor Harris, with 58% supporting her over 40% for Trump.
Age is another important factor. Voters under 50 are more likely to support Harris, with 55% favoring her compared to 44% for Trump. Meanwhile, voters aged 50 and older back Trump, with 54% supporting him over 45% for Harris.
Both candidates retain strong support from their previous backers. Harris is supported by 93% of voters who backed Joe Biden in 2020 and 95% of those who also supported Hillary Clinton in 2016. Similarly, Trump retains the loyalty of 94% of his 2020 voters, including 97% of those who voted for him in both 2016 and 2020. However, his support is slightly weaker among those who voted for him in 2020 but not in 2016.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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