The 2024 US Presidential election is shaping up to be the closest contest between the candidates since 1960. While Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is projected to have gained an edge over her rival, Republican ex-President Donald Trump in the race after the debate on September 10, the difference remains within the margin of error to make a conclusive call.
1960 was the last Presidential race where the major-party candidates consistently stayed within 5 points of each other in the average national polls. Every presidential election year since has seen at least three weeks where one candidate led by 5 points or more.
According to surveys and analysis by FiveThirtyEight, which comes under ABC network, Harris leads Trump by 2.8% (48.3 to 45.5%). She has also consistently led Donald Trump in the polls by a margin of 2.5 to 3% since the debate. She enjoyed a marginal lead which peaked at 3.3% on the day of the debate.
It is an incredibly rare instance this year, where no candidate has been able to secure an at least 5-point lead at any point of the electoral cycle. Latest polls indicate that Harris currently holds at least 3-point lead over Trump. This does not provide Harris with security as since 1948, the average margin of error between the pre-election polls and polls on Election Day has been 3 points.
Polls in the Battleground States
Polls in the seven battleground states are extremely close, making it difficult to determine who is truly leading. There are fewer state polls compared to national ones, resulting in limited data and potential margins of error. Currently, candidates are separated by just one or two percentage points in several states, including the crucial state of Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral votes.
Poll data shows that Harris leads by 2.3% in Michigan (48.3% to 46.0%), by 1.6% in Wisconsin (48.3 % to 46.8%), and by 1.4% in Pennsylvania (48.2% to 46.8%). Additionally, she has a slight edge of 0.5% in limited polling from Nevada (47.2% to 46.7%). On the other hand, Trump holds narrow leads in three other battlegrounds: 0.6% in Arizona (47.5% to 47.0%), 1.0% in Georgia (48.0% to 46.9%), and 0.3% in North Carolina (47.6% to 47.3%).
Historically, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were Democratic strongholds until Trump won them in 2016. Biden regained them in 2020, and according to experts, if Harris can do the same, she could secure the election. Notably, when Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five points on average in these battleground states, highlighting the shift since Harris became the Democratic nominee.
Lead within the margin of error
When looking at all national surveys conducted since the recent debate, the average, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, shows Harris ahead in the presidential election by just 3 points.
Currently, a 3-point lead in the national polls offers little assurance for Harris. Historically, since 1948, the average discrepancy between polls just before the election and the actual Election Day results has been 3 points. In some instances, such as in 2020, this margin of error has been even greater.
Scrutiny from Previous Presidential Elections
However, pre-election surveys are under scrutiny this year after colossal failures to predict the margins in 2016 and 2020. The polls underestimated the support for Trump, with 2016 polls also suggesting a 90% chance of victory for Trump’s presidential rival, Hillary Clinton. Pollsters inform that more stringent measures are being taken in 2024 to ensure accuracy and minimal difference between the polls and the election results.
This includes new approach to “weighting” methods, which involves adjusting survey data to account for sample biases and discrepancies between the survey sample and the target population.
Pollsters have traditionally applied weighting to create survey samples that accurately represent the electorate based on factors like gender, age, race, and income. However, following the 2016 election, they are now placing special emphasis on incorporating education into their weighting processes.
Voter demographic
Poll research conducted by Pew Research sheds light on the voter demographic that supports each candidate this presidential election.
According to the surveys, men are more likely to prefer Trump (52%) than Harris (46%), while the opposite is true for women. Harris continues to enjoy overwhelming support from the Black (84%), Asian (61%) and Hispanic (57%) communities while the majority of white voters support Trump (56%).
This year’s poll surveys are emphasizing education to account for the discrepancies in the 2016 and 2020 elections. They found that voters without a bachelor’s degree break for Trump 53% to 44%, while Harris leads among the more educated voters with a four-year degree or more (57% vs. 41%).
Looking at the age demographic, voters under 50 are more likely to say they will vote for or lean toward Harris (54%) than Trump (44%), while voters aged 50 or older back Trump over Harris by a similar margin (53% vs. 46%).
Support from Previous Backers
Harris also enjoys the support of the voters who backed her predecessors, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton. More than nine-in-ten voters who backed Biden in 2020 (93%) now support Harris. Nearly all of Biden’s voters who also backed Hillary Clinton in 2016 (95%) also support Harris.
The pattern among Trump’s 2020 voters is nearly identical: He retains the support of 94% of those who voted for him in 2020, including 97% of those who backed him in 2016 and 2020. However, his support is softer among those who voted for him in 2020 but not 2016.
The trend among Trump’s voters from 2020 is quite similar: he maintains the backing of 94% of those who supported him in that election, with 97% of those who voted for him in both 2016 and 2020 still in his corner. However, his support is less firm among those who voted for him in 2020 but did not support him in 2016.
The US goes to poll on November 5.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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