The threat of an oncoming war in 2035 by China along with Pakistan, puts the entire border patrolling arrangement issue under deeper scrutiny as it allows China to move its troops according to its strategic requirements. Moreover, an anti-India incumbent government in Bangladesh, further puts India in the backfoot as China can leverage this to further put pressure on India during a potential conflict. There is also the case of illegal immigration from Bangladesh and Myanmar that presents itself as a potential weakness to India’s security. With so many factors acting against the country, the question arises, is India truly on a path of certain defeat? Does a new US President with a stern anti-China stance curb the country’s war-mongering ambitions. In this article, Defence and Strategic Affairs expert, Lt. Col. J. S. Sodhi, talks about the areas that India needs to focus on and what China’s ambitions really are.
Let’s talk about the government’s economic response to China. Like you say, it is essential to curb that. Trump’s stance on China has often been confrontational. He has been critical of trade with China and has often made threats to cut off any trade with the communist government completely. He announced nearly 60% tariffs on imports from China when he comes back to the office. So, do you think that Trumps presidency alters with the timelines of the wars? Does it affect China’s grand scheme or is it a challenge that China has to navigate?
Well for China, Trump does not matter much because they are very well prepared militarily and economically, even if Trump tries to put a lot of tariffs on them. They have big market in the other countries of the world and officially the trade between China and USA has decreased last year compared to 2022.
But there is a very interesting thing which has happened. The trade between USA and Mexico has increased and bulk of the stuff made in Mexico is by Chinese companies. So directly or indirectly China remains the manufacturing factory of the world. Even if USA wants to risk decoupling from China, it will end up purchasing from countries like Mexico and Vietnam where the Chinese investments are phenomenally high.
So directly or indirectly USA is still dependent on China. All the aggressiveness which Donald Trump is showing toward China will not deter China from waging the first war for Taiwan in 2027. Because like I have said earlier in the interview and in my book, it has prepared itself well economically and militarily to annex Taiwan, whosoever be the American president.
So earlier in the interview, we discussed about Taiwan. Taiwan annexation was attempted in the Taiwan Strait crisis in the 60s, 80’s and 70’s. It was averted because of the threat of nuclear retaliation from the US which would have unequivocally come to Taiwan’s help back in the 70’s and 80s. But of course, that is not the case now with China itself being a nuclear and naval powerhouse. There are also doubts of US contributing more than just economically given the recent developments in Ukraine.
But now that a new administration is on the way, do you think that there are increased chances of US sending military aid to Taiwan in order to combat against China should the annexation come into play?
Well, in last 10 years USA has never sent a single soldier to any of its ally. It has given money; it has given weapons but never sent a single soldier. We all saw the embarrassing exit that USA did from Afghanistan in 2021. Donald Trump and his election campaign rallies made it clear that USA will not take part in any war under his presidency. Last year there was an opinion poll held in Taiwan in which 62% of Taiwanese citizens said that USA is an untrustworthy ally.
The Taiwanese also know that USA will not send a single soldier to them if Taiwan is attacked by China. So as far as the American involvement is concerned in Taiwan, it will be only limited to money and weapons and not soldiers, and China is very sure of that. That is why despite Donald Trump winning the elections, after that there has been no let up on the Chinese military activities in and around Taiwan. Rather it has increased. Just few days back they came nearest to Taiwan than they ever done before. So like I said, China are not going to get deterred by USA, whosoever is president.
How do you think the recent disturbances and the conflicts in the world, the Russian nuclear war, the Syria regime change and with the which the premier Xi Jinping describes as ‘Black Swan’ and ‘Grey Rhino’ which are highly probable but ignored risk or unexpected crisis. How do you think these disturbances affect China’s strategy going forward? Do they have any effect on the timeline of the wars?
Well, whatever be the disturbances in any part of the world, China are not getting involved directly and indirectly. Also, its support is minimal because China after the Vietnam War in 1979 decided that it will not take part in any war or conflicts around the world. It will focus on its economic growth. Also, we have understood that the economic growth is a foundation for a strong military power.
You know, the sequence for a country to become a superpower with China, along with USA and Russia, is to have sound economic growth, then work on a military power and then have nuclear weapons. And this is what China followed.
For China, the first military aim is Taiwan. Before that it will not get involved in any conflict.
So whatever be the problem in Middle East or in any part of the world, China will restrict itself to giving statements or trying to broker peace because China is very clear.
For China, the priority number one, the military target number one, is Taiwan.
It does not want to divert its military, its resources to any other war in the world because it knows that it is not to gain anything by taking part in any other war in the world. For it, like I said, the priority remains Taiwan.
And one more point I would like to add. On 17 January this year, Grant Schapps, who was the United Kingdom Defence Secretary, said in a statement, the next 5 years we will see new war fronts opening up in the world and there will be only 4 countries behind these new war fronts – Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. And as things are unfurling, Grant Schnapp’s statement is coming out to be correct.
Let us talk about the two-front war on India that will be waged by China along with Pakistan in 2035. According to your book, Pakistan will attack India for control over Kashmir and China will attack for control over Arunachal Pradesh or what it calls the Southern Tibet. You also extensively detail the camaraderie that has been brewing between Pakistan and China like the Pakistan China Economic Corridor, the Belt & Road Initiative and the close working of the Pakistan and China’s military. Also, China has successfully surrounded India navally with bases in Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and most recently Cox Bazaar in Bangladesh as well. Furthermore, according to the timeline, this will be fresh off the victory of China in the war over the Spratly Islands which would give it an insurmountable position in the Indo-Pacific region.
Where do you think India and its allies made such a grave oversight that allowed China to get into such a formidable position?
Well, the biggest blunder was made by America when in 1972 for one week, from 21st to 28th February 1972, the American President, President Richard Nixon went to China and after the visit he historically remarked that this one week will change the world.
Well, it did change the world but not in the way he had thought.
It changed the world to a more unsafe place because after that visit of President Nixon, USA established diplomatic ties with China. They started giving business to China and China started prospering as manufacturing hub of the world.
And like I said before, with the immense money that China made, it side by side started increasing its military might. Also, today there is one country which can be held responsible for China’s rise which is only USA. Because USA has the capability and the capacity to stop China’s rise when it knew very well the China is a communist nation come what may.
Communism and capitalism can never converge.
– Lt. Col. J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
Despite that, it gave China business. A lesson to be learned is whosoever is your enemy or whosoever has different ideological views than you, however sweet that person may seem to you, his inherent characteristics can never change.
The facade that he’s put on has to collapse one day and this happened with China. So there is one country to blame and that is USA and no one else.
Let’s talk about a more recent development as well, which were the agreements that were reached between India and China regarding Border Patrol patterns along the Line of Actual Control there, which had been a point of contention since the Galwan Valley clashes in 2020. Would you tell us about these patrolling arrangements and how do they factor into the plan for 2035?
Well, for this I would require some time. What I would like to tell you here is how the entire buildup happened. In 2015, two years after Xi Jinping had become the Chinese President, he announced the military reforms for the Chinese army.
Accordingly, next year, that is on 1st February 2016, the Chinese army was reorganised into theatre commands. But what Xi Jinping was not able to do that time was to move the forces within according to these specific theatre command requirements for the fear of international criticism. So, China waited patiently.
Next year in 2017 there was Doklam issue after which the Indian media was gung-ho saying that India scored victory over China and Doklam. Well, it was not. China called it a victory.
Lt. Col. J.S. Sodhi (Retd.)
After and during the Doklam crisis, China re-orbited its military, moving its military here and there according to the newly created theatre commands which were created just a year back in 2016. So now China had its military forces re-orbited as per its new theatre commands which the Indian media did not pick up.
We thought that we have silenced China, we have had a victory over China without a single shot being fired. Well, that was not China’s aim. China’s aim was to use Doklam as an excuse to reorbit the troops which it did and hence it went back after 73 days without a single shot being fired.
Now what happened? It had its forces as per its theatre commands. Now on 5th August 2019 when India abrogated Article 370/35A away from Jammu and Kashmir, this took China and Pakistan by surprise.
A few days later, the Pakistani Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmood Qureshi flew down to Beijing on 19th August 2019. It was decided between China and Pakistan that at an appropriate time a strong message would be sent to India, and they decided to wait for the winter months to finish. As the winter months finished in March and beginning of April 2020, the Chinese army build-up started in Eastern Ladakh, which eventually led to the Galwan Valley clash of 15 June, 2020. After that, it’s been four and a half years, there has been tensions between India and China.
Now this is all a build-up towards the 2035 two-front war. China has its troops according to the newly created theatre commands. It has shown its strength of might in Eastern Ladakh. Now on 21st October this year, Vikram Misri, our foreign secretary announced disengagement between India and China.
Well, this is only temporary phase from the Chinese side because for them like I said before, their priority is Taiwan. They do not want to keep both their fronts alive. That is the eastern front which is Taiwan and the Western Front which is with India. This peace on their Western Front, which is our eastern front, is only temporary.
It is only for few years… until they have annexed Taiwan.
Recently when after our NSA Ajit Doval visited China, where he met Wang Yi, the Foreign Minister of China and the 6-point consensus was agreed upon on the same day, the Pentagon of USA said that there is no let-up on the military build-up by China opposite India.
On one hand, they are talking peace, but on the other hand, they’re not reducing their military build-up. So it is for us to decipher what their latent objectives are.
There’s also news that the new arrangements will follow what they were before the 2020 clashes. Do you think there was a lesson to be learned there that India is not following right now or is this another oversight, that is playing into China’s hands?
Well, you see China has this uncanny ability where it provokes you, it provokes a country and when the country is not able to understand the intents of China, such clashes happen.
India never thought that in early April 2020, China would do a massive buildup in eastern Ladakh. But they did it because China has this, you know, uncanny ability, like I said, where it professes peace but its military aims and objectives never go away.
So, this is what it is doing now. Also, it is showing its one peace on the LAC with India.
Like I said, its aim first is Taiwan. Once it is annexed Taiwan, then obviously we will see the LAC heating up.
I have said in various places, China and Pakistan are two countries which India should never trust because whenever we have trusted China and Pakistan, they have stabbed us in the back. And these are the two countries which only understand a strong and a stern language.
So, while all this diplomacy is OK, while all these talks are OK, our military preparedness should only increase. Because that is the language that these two countries understand.
Talking a bit more about the border with China, let us talk a bit about Bangladesh. The issue of cross border immigration between India and Bangladesh, has been a contentious one for decades. Matter of fact, it has been something that the political entities in that border area on our side have heavily leveraged for electoral gain. How do you view the current situation and what do you think is at the root of this crisis?
Any country which tries to eliminate its minorities eventually breaks up into smaller countries. The biggest example is Germany. After World War I, when Germany got defeated, they tried to put the blame on Jews and they tried to eliminate Jews. Jews were just 1% of the German population that time.
But Germany got divided into 2 countries. What is happening in Bangladesh and Myanmar? Because they have been trying to eliminate the minorities there. They are on the verge of takeover.
On 5th November last year, the Myanmar president said in a statement that the way the civil war is going on in Myanmar, our country will soon be split into smaller countries. What is happening in Bangladesh against Hindus?
Like I said, any country which tries to eliminate its minorities eventually splits up into smaller countries. This issue of illegal immigration, well it has to be tackled. How come people are coming into a country when we have strong border security forces manning the borders?
Whatever research I have done is showing that in the last 10 years just 18 Rohingyas have been deported from the country, just 18 in 10 years. So here the question comes again. If illegal immigrants are not welcome in a country, why they are not being sent back? We have to take strong steps for internal and external security.
No country is going to come and help us. We can’t keep on crying. There is an international conspiracy.
You see whenever any country or any person is successful in life, they have more enemies than they have friends. Whatever little position I am in today, there have been many times and people have not helped me but that didn’t stop me from performing.
The point that I am making is it is very natural that as you succeed in life, you will have more enemies. But rather than crying about what the enemies are doing, we have to make ourselves stronger and here we need to learn a lesson from USA.
Decades back when USA came to know that their citizens are being killed the world over because USA had become a superpower, they enacted the Patriot Act under which they officially and openly kill any person in any part of the world who is waging a war against USA or its American citizens and they do it openly. So firstly, we need to stop crying that there is international conspiracy that someone is doing that.
Well it will happen, it will always happen. What we need to is having strong policies like the Patriot Act and acting on them. We know illegal immigrants are a drain on a natural resources. You need to send them back. 18 in 10 years is a very, very, I mean number which one has no words for it.
For all that hoopla we hear on the electronic media about Rohingyas, just 18 have been sent back. So at certain places we need a rethink.
But the Rohingyas face alienation from Myanmar. Now even Bangladesh which has the most influx of Rohingyas as well, they have urged Myanmar to take them back. And where would they go? Where would the country even send their community because Myanmar is not taking them. Even Bangladesh is being apprehensive about taking more immigrants.
Well whichever country takes them or not, it is that countries’ internal affair. We have to look at our own country. We have limited resources. Any country has limited resources. How many people can we keep as illegal immigrants here?
By keeping illegal immigrants here, by having open arm policy for them, we are depriving our own citizens of the basic infrastructure or the basic needs. So the point that I am making is humanity is one one part of it.
But if it is eating or eroding our own resources, which country will help us? When our resources get reduced to a significant level, no one will help us. No one helps anyone.
What a person does in life is totally his or her own effort. One odd person may give you a break, one odd person may help you here and there. But to think that my career will be taken on top by another person 24/7 is simply not possible. The person has to put in the effort. Similarly, any country, especially ours, which is facing a problem like this, firstly, why are they allowed to enter?
Who is along them? Somebody at the border outpost is not doing this job. And then of course, once they are here, how come only 18 have been sent back? So we have to see what resources we have.
We are a developing country; we have so many social responsibilities. If any country feels that they are needed, that country should welcome them with open arms.
This leads well into my next question, which is as a defense expert, what according to you are the implication of this cross-border immigration on the national security of India, especially with the concerns of China’s moves along the LAC and the future two-front war?
Well these illegal immigrants who are coming in, there is no character verification that has been done. What is the background? How are they connected to the adversaries, intelligence agencies? What information is being passed by them here to those people across the borders?
These are very big questions. They are staying here but it is not known which part of the country they are staying in. They have no identity proofs. We see in the media someday some Aadhaar card is recovered from them, which is forged. So it is a big security threat and if we are weak internally, obviously it will affect the external security preparedness. .
If a house is united, the neighbours cannot take undue advantage. But if a house has infights, the neighbours will take advantage. It is a normal philosophy of life.
The same thing here, the stronger we are internally the more strongly we will be able to face the external threats.
Do you see the potential for a diplomatic solution to this issue for India? Of course, the recent regime change in Bangladesh further puts India on the backfoot as the ousted government was friendly with India. Same cannot be said for the entities that are vying for power in the country now. Is there a fear that the communal sentiments between the interim government and Pakistan, which are both Muslim, does that exacerbate the threat to India, keeping in mind the two-front war?
Well definitely the way Bangladesh and Pakistan are growing towards close towards each other is a threat. My book was released on 7th August and about two months before my writing had been completed.
Now I talk in the media on a three-front war but the way Bangladesh has turned anti-India, the way it is going and embracing Pakistan and China, it is ringing warning bells for us.
Check out the preceding part of this interview focusing on China’s war timeline and national ambitions.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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