 will be vying for control of Maharashtra 288 assembly seats.){kind=link}
The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections are set to be a significant political event, thanks to dynamic party splits and a tumultuous political scene. The major alliances, the Mahuyuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) are vying for control of the state’s 288 seats. The elections will be held in a single phase on November 20, with results declared on November 23.
The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), led by Ajit Pawar, is contesting the elections in an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction). This alliance, known as the Mahayuti, has released its first list of candidates. The NCP has renominated 26 sitting MLAs, including ministers who supported Ajit Pawar when he joined the ruling camp.
The Shiv Sena has also released its first list of 45 candidates for the Maharashtra assembly polls. Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has been nominated from Kopri-Panchpakhadi in Thane city. The list includes more than half a dozen cabinet members who backed Shinde during his revolt against the then Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray in June 2022.
The BJP, another key player in the Mahayuti alliance, released a list of 99 candidates for the Maharashtra Assembly elections on Sunday. According to sources referenced by India Today, the BJP is expected to be assigned 152-155 seats, while the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde will get 78-80 seats. The NCP, under Ajit Pawar’s leadership, is anticipated to contest 52-54 seats. This seat-sharing arrangement was reportedly finalized during a recent high-level meeting at Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s residence in Delhi.
On the other side, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Udhhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), and Congress, is also ramping up their preparations for the elections. Sanjay Raut, a prominent leader from the MVA, expressed confidence in their preparations and stated that their complete list of candidates would be released by 4 PM today.
“There is no seat-sharing formula of Maha Vikas Aghadi. MVA’s list got delayed because we are going to form the Government. Others are going to sit in Opposition. We will come to power, so we have to choose candidates and seats very carefully. Our complete list will be released by 4 pm today. The work has almost been completed last night. There are no disputes or differences among us. Everything is going well,” said Sanjay Raut.
In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won 105 seats, Shiv Sena secured 56, and Congress won 44 seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieved a majority but faced internal conflicts, leading to the formation of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government. This coalition included the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, along with independent lawmakers. Maharashtra Legislative Assembly consist of 288 seats, with a majority threshold set at 145.
NCP Split
The political landscape of Maharashtra has been marred by radical party turncoats and faction splits, which sent the state’s politics into a crisis. The 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections saw the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) achieve a majority, but internal conflicts soon led to a dramatic reshuffling of alliances.
In 2019, despite winning the largest number of seats, the BJP faced internal strife within its alliance. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, left the NDA to form a new coalition, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Indian National Congress. This unusual coalition, comprising the right-wing Shiv Sena, the centrist NCP, and the Congress, managed to gather enough support to cross the halfway mark of 144 lawmakers in the 288-member assembly, thereby thwarting the BJP’s bid to form the government.
The Split within NCP
The political dynamics took another turn on July 2, 2023, when Ajit Pawar, along with several other leaders, broke away from the NCP led by his uncle Sharad Pawar. Ajit Pawar favored forming an alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a move that Sharad Pawar publicly opposed. The NCP traditionally followed a centrist, secular, and inclusive political approach, focusing on social justice and the welfare of marginalized communities. In contrast, the BJP’s right-wing ideology emphasized nationalism and Hindu cultural values.
On July 2, 2023, Ajit Pawar, along with eight other NCP leaders, was sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra in the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance government. This move led to a vertical split in the NCP, which led to the emergence of two factions, each led by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar.
The first major electoral test after the split came during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) managed to secure 30 out of 48 seats, while the Maha Yuti, comprising the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), could only win 17 seats. This result highlighted the continuing influence and resilience of the MVA despite the internal splits and challenges.
The political turmoil continued as Eknath Shinde, along with several MLAs from the MVA coalition, moved to Surat in BJP-governed Gujarat, throwing the coalition into a crisis. The group later relocated to Guwahati in Assam, another BJP-governed state. Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut accused the BJP of orchestrating the revolt within Shiv Sena and attempting to topple the MVA government. These accusations were implicitly supported by remarks from BJP’s Sushil Modi.
Shiv Sena split
The internal conflicts within the Shiv Sena led to the formation of two separate political entities. The secular and progressive faction, led by Uddhav Thackeray, formed the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), while the traditional Hindu nationalist faction, led by Eknath Shinde, established the Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena.
In February 2023, the Election Commission of India (ECI) ruled in favor of the Eknath Shinde faction, recognizing it as the ‘real Shiv Sena’ and granting it the “bow and arrow” symbol. The ECI based its decision on the majority support Shinde’s faction had among the party’s elected representatives in the state legislature and Parliament.
Uddhav Thackeray’s faction challenged the ECI’s decision in the Supreme Court, arguing that the decision was unfair and that the ECI did not adequately consider the support from the party’s organizational wing. The Supreme Court refused to stay the ECI’s order but agreed to hear the case, leaving the final decision pending.
The ruling allowed the Shinde faction to use the Shiv Sena name and symbol for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Meanwhile, the Uddhav Thackeray faction adopted the name Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the “flaming torch” symbol for its electoral activities.
Maharashtra’s political scenario remains fluid and dynamic, with alliances and splits reshaping the state’s governance. As the state prepares for future elections, the evolving political strategies and alignments will continue to play a crucial role in determining the balance of power.
Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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