The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is grappling with the aftermath of a crushing defeat in the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a resounding victory by winning 48 out of 70 seats. AAP, which had dominated the previous two elections with 67 and 62 seats in 2015 and 2020 respectively, was reduced to a mere 22 seats. The impact of this political debacle now casts a shadow over Punjab, the only state where AAP remains in power.
While AAP has been enjoying a dominating presence in Punjab’s assembly since the 2022 Assembly Elections, recent Lok Sabha elections painted a diverging picture as Congress scored a decisive victory over AAP, taking 7 out of 13 seats over AAP’s 3. Parallelly, 2 seats were won by independent candidates, Amritpal – who now heads the newly formed Waris Punjab De (WPD) Akali Dal, and Sarbjeet Singh Khalsa.
The party has faced a mixed political trajectory since the 2022 assembly elections. Congress outperformed AAP in the recent Lok Sabha elections, signaling a potential shift in voter sentiment. While AAP reclaimed some ground by winning three out of four constituencies in the by-elections, the pressure on Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann has intensified in light of Kejriwal’s shocking defeat in Delhi.
Congress’ senior leaders have been quick to hint at a brewing rift within AAP, speculating a potential power struggle between Arvind Kejriwal and Bhagwant Mann. Kejriwal, who has long been the face of AAP, may seek to strengthen his hold over Punjab, given his weakened position in Delhi. This could lead to internal conflicts, further straining the party’s stability.
AAP’s Challenge in Punjab: Governance and Perception
In its Punjab campaign, AAP had successfully leveraged the ‘Delhi model’ of governance, promising better education, healthcare, and employment. The Mann government delivered on several promises, such as providing 300 units of free electricity, abolishing toll plazas, promoting Punjabi language initiatives, and establishing modernized ‘schools of excellence’. However, the rampant drug abuse and mounting state debt due to misalignment with the ruling party in Centre are core issues faced by Punjab that AAP has failed to address.
Moreover, Kejriwal’s image has suffered due to corruption allegations and with the BJP’s sustained attack on his governance in Delhi, AAP’s ability to maintain its stronghold in Punjab is in question. The Delhi election results indicate that AAP’s middle-class support base, which was once its backbone, may no longer be as steadfast. The BJP’s strategy of targeting Kejriwal on corruption and governance issues proved successful, and similar tactics could be deployed against AAP in Punjab. Among the aforementioned things, AAP’s immediate challenge remains to maintain unity within its ranks and prevent internal conflicts from escalating. At the same time, addressing key governance issues and reinforcing public confidence in AAP’s policies will be crucial.
Congress, SAD and Panthic Newcomers: Political Opportunities Amid AAP’s Troubles
The Congress party, which has remained AAP’s main opposition in Punjab since 2017, sees an opportunity to regain its lost ground. However, if Congress fails to capitalize on AAP’s vulnerabilities, the political space in Punjab could see a radical and unexpected shift.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), once the dominant Panthic voice in the state, has suffered crippling setbacks, which culminated in the beleaguered party securing only one seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party’s face, Sukhbir Badal, remains the party’s Chief Ministerial candidate despite his recent resignation as the party chief and the public’s disillusionment with the party that surfaced under his leadership. The one parliamentary seat in Punjab – Bathinda, is held by his wife, Harsimrat Badal, who won the vote for the fourth consecutive time last year.
BJP faces a minimal presence in the state, having contested solo in Punjab for the first time since 1996. Traditionally allying with the SAD, their decision to fly solo resulted in a predictable outcome with the party failing to win a single seat.
This void left by SAD (Badal) has opened the door for emerging parties like Khadoor Sahib MP, Amritpal Singh’s Waris Punjab De (WPD) Akali Dal, which positions itself as a more authentic defender of Sikh Panthic interests compared to SAD. WPD Akali Dal during its inauguration vowed to fulfil promises that the ruling AAP has failed to deliver. For example, the promise to finally rid Punjab of its rampant drug infestation, a promise made by AAP to be fulfilled in 3 months after it came to power. But this has not happened. In fact, the problem is believed to have worsened.
With Congress looking to make a comeback, SAD attempting to regain relevance, and new players like WPD Akali Dal seeking to disrupt the status quo, Punjab’s political future is uncertain. AAP must navigate these complexities carefully if it hopes to retain power beyond 2027.
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Manbilas Singh is a talented writer and journalist who focuses on the finer details in every story and values integrity above everything. A self-proclaimed sleuth, he strives to expose the fine print behind seemingly mundane activities and aims to uncover the truth that is hidden from the general public. In his time away from work, he is a music aficionado and a nerd who revels in video & board games, books and Formula 1.
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