According to the 2024 Annual Threat Assessment released on February 05, 2024 by the Director of National Intelligence, USA, since the relations of India with both China and Pakistan are fragile, it is likely to result in a war between these three nations.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, the Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command on October 28, 2024 said that China is carrying out the largest military buildup since World War II, perhaps in world history. More recently, Air Chief Marshal AP Singh, the Chief of Air Staff, Indian Air Force (IAF) expressed concern on January 07, 2025 over the increased militarisation by China and Pakistan and the pace at which technology is growing at a very rapid pace in China.
It is clear that the increase in military preparedness by both China and Pakistan is with very specific military aims and are aimed at India wherein all timelines are pointing for a joint two-front war by China and Pakistan on India in 2035.
In the backdrop of the war clouds that are darkening with each passing day, the decision of Mr Rajnath Singh, Defence Minister of India to designate 2025 as the “Year of Reforms” for the Indian Armed Forces assumes significance.
After USA announced the Full Spectrum Operations Doctrine in 2001 as a consequence to their victory in the 1991 Gulf War, China is the only nation in the world to have expressed its capability to fight a war in all six domains of warfare – land, sea, air, cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space, when they did so in the PLA Doctrine of 2014 titled “Joint Integrated Operations (JIO)”.
Subsequently the next year, in 2015 the PLA Defence Reforms were announced which saw the PLA restructured into the five Theatre Commands on February 01, 2016. Since that year all military exercises of the PLA have been carried out as per the JIO.
As a result of the continuous military exercises of the PLA as part of the JIO, a need was felt for the second set of the PLA Defence Reforms which were announced in April 2024.
While the Indian Armed Forces have so far shown the combat prowess in the three conventional domains of warfare – land, sea and air, the three new domains of warfare – cyber, electromagnetic spectrum and space need to fully integrated in plans and policies right down to the soldier level so that the nuances of modern warfare are understood to all.
The most important factor that the Year of Reforms has to ensure is that the reforms are completed by the year-end as a little less than a decade will be left to fine-tune the modalities of the modern warfare, which will be quite different from the wars that the Indian Armed Forces have fought till now.
The future wars to be waged by China starting from its war for Taiwan in 2027 to the two-front war with Pakistan on India in 2035, will initially begin with non-kinetic warfare in which the three new domains of warfare will play a lead role. After success has been obtained in these three new domains of warfare, will the PLA unleash kinetic warfare which will comprise the three conventional warfare domains. The Year of Reforms has to ensure the capacity and capability of the Indian Armed Forces to fight both the non-kinetic and kinetic forms of warfare.
Beginning with the three conventional warfare domains, the shortage of the fighter aircrafts needs to be made-up on war footing for effective combat air power. As against the authorised 42 fighter aircraft squadrons, the IAF is holding 29.5 squadrons. The 67 warships and submarines being constructed for the Indian Navy should be aimed to be completed by 2030 so that their integration in various fighting formations is seamless keeping in view the 2035 horizon. The induction of the new weapon systems for the Indian Army should too be inducted on war footing for better efficacy as it takes times for a soldier to get accustomed to nuances of new weapon systems.
Regarding the new domains of modern warfare which include cyber and electromagnetic spectrum, the Year of Reforms should address the networking of the three Services in the virtual domain too. Emphasis needs to be also laid on cloud computing and machine learning as the PLA apart from already incorporating 5.5G in its networks is now on the anvil of inducting 6G. China’s edge computing industry has taken a lead since 2022 with seven of the top 10 organisations that filed most patent applications for edge computing, belonging to China. Clearly, lead in edge computing gives greater leverage in the Internet of Things (IoT) that encompass electronics and communication.
The Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh launched “SANJAY”, the Battlefield Surveillance System on January 25, 2025 which is an automated system designed to integrate inputs from various battlefield sensors to enhance reconnaissance capabilities. The Year of Reforms should address the timely induction of such systems that will enhance the Indian military’s expertise in the new domains of warfare.
On June 18, 2024, General Anil Chauhan, the Chief of Defence Staff released the Joint Doctrine for Cyberspace Operations. 2025 should see frequent military exercises where the cyber warfare element needs to be dovetailed in planning and the raising of Computer Emergency Response Teams at field formation level as the field formations will be the cutting combat edge.
China is slowly shortening the lead from the pole position that USA has currently in the third of the new domains of war – space warfare. China is slated to become the global leader in space warfare capabilities by 2030. Currently, China has 245 military satellites while India has 26 and USA leads with 313. In 2018, Lt Gen Robert Ashley, the Director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency warned that China was working on the ability to jam satellites from the ground. The Year of Reforms should look into this critical aspect which will play a crucial role in futuristic wars.
The next one decade is very important for India from the military preparedness point of view and by designating 2025 the Year of Reforms, clearly an important step has been taken. What will be of immense significance is the speed of execution and accountability and responsibility at various levels to ensure that changes that are made in the Indian Armed Forces are better and more advanced than both the adversaries, whose combined combat power has started raising concerns globally.
The Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi’s announcement on November 13, 2024, while addressing the 64th National Defence College Course in New Delhi of christening the next one decade as the “Decade of Transformation” along with the Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s designating 2025 as the “Year of Reforms” should prove to be the game changer with 2035 on the horizon, which is just a decade away.
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