The specter of conflict looms over the Taiwan Strait as tensions escalate between Taiwan and China. Taiwans Ministry of National Defense (MND) has reported increased naval and aerial activity by Chinas Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), marking a continuation of Beijings strategy to assert its claims over the island. Experts, such as Retd. Lt. Col. JS Sodhi, warn that military confrontation, with the goal of unifying Taiwan with mainland China, could materialize as early as 2027.

Escalating Military Activities

In recent days, Taiwans military has observed a notable uptick in PLA operations.

December 11-12, the MND detected 34 PLA aircraft and 16 Peoples Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels near Taiwan. Of these, 22 aircraft crossed the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwans Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the northern, southwestern, and eastern regions. In response, Taiwans Armed Forces deployed Combat Air Patrol (CAP) aircraft, naval vessels, and coastal missile systems.

From December 10-11, 53 PLA aircraft and 11 PLAN vessels were identified in the vicinity, with 23 aircraft violating the median line and encroaching upon Taiwans ADIZ.

More recently, on Tuesday, the MND reported the operation of eight Chinese military aircraft and five naval vessels, six of which crossed the median line. On Wednesday, three PLA aircraft and six naval vessels were detected, with one aircraft entering Taiwans eastern ADIZ. By Thursday morning, five PLAN vessels were active near the island.

Taiwans military has conducted war-preparedness drills at strategic locations across the island and coordinated with the Coast Guard Administration to bolster its defenses. These actions underscore Taiwans vigilance in the face of mounting Chinese military pressure.

The Geopolitical Context

The Taiwan-China conflict centers on Taiwans sovereignty. Officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), Taiwan operates its own government, military, and economy, functioning as a de facto independent state. However, Beijing views Taiwan as a breakaway province, adhering to its One China policy, which asserts that there is only one China, with Beijing as its capital.

China has consistently employed diplomatic, economic, and military measures to isolate Taiwan on the international stage. Recent PLA operations align with this strategy and have escalated following the U.S. announcement of arms sales and military assistance to Taiwan. Beijings foreign ministry emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the core of Chinas interests and the first red line that cannot be crossed in China-U.S. relations.

U.S. and Regional Responses

The United States, Taiwans most significant international backer, has reiterated its commitment to regional stability. Arms sales and continued military assistance are seen as crucial to bolstering Taiwans defense capabilities. An American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) spokesperson noted that the PLAs heightened activity aligns with past large-scale exercises, such as Joint Sword-2024A and Joint Sword-2024B.

President Lai Ching-te, whom Beijing has labeled a separatist, recently concluded a Pacific tour that included transits through US territories. His trip has drawn further ire from Beijing, contributing to the PLAs escalated operations.

The rising frequency of PLA incursions signals a steady tightening of pressure on Taiwan. Beijings strategic aim appears to involve not only demonstrating its military capabilities but also testing Taiwans responses and resilience. The possibility of a conflict aimed at unification remains a pressing concern for both regional actors and the broader international community. Experts claim that China could possibly wage a war for unification of Taiwan as early as 2027, with a certain victory for the Communist government.